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• Ethereum Stabilizes as CME Shorts Unwind

Ist Interwetten legal in Deutschland? – Alle Infos zur Lizenz und Sicherheit

Ist Interwetten legal in Deutschland? – Alle Infos zur Lizenz und Sicherheit

• Ethereum (ETH) had been under pressure for months due to short positions on CME futures.
• These positions were part of an arbitrage strategy – not a direct sign of pessimism toward ETH.
• Most of these positions have now been closed, removing a technical drag on the price.
• ETH shows strong fundamentals, but currently lacks new momentum to drive price growth.

Ist Interwetten legal in Deutschland? – Alle Infos zur Lizenz und Sicherheit

In November 2024, the so-called “basis” of Ethereum futures on the U.S. CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) exceeded 20%. The basis refers to the difference between the price of a future and the current spot price (i.e., the actual market price). This significant discrepancy created a classic arbitrage opportunity for institutional investors: they bought ETH on the spot market – often via exchange-traded funds (ETFs) – and simultaneously sold futures on CME.

This strategy was not a sign of distrust in Ethereum, but rather a structured trading approach to profit from the price difference. However, it led to a massive buildup of short positions, which technically weighed on the ETH price.

Ist Interwetten legal in Deutschland? – Alle Infos zur Lizenz und Sicherheit

Since early 2025, the basis has significantly decreased and now sits at around 4–5%, bringing it closer to the yields of U.S. Treasury bonds. As a result, the arbitrage opportunity has disappeared. Institutional investors began unwinding their positions: they covered their short positions on CME and simultaneously sold off their spot ETH holdings.

This unwinding was costly – it significantly contributed to Ethereum’s weak price performance in the first quarter of 2025. At its peak, the open short volume reached over USD 600 million.

Ist Interwetten legal in Deutschland? – Alle Infos zur Lizenz und Sicherheit

Despite the weak price trend, Ethereum’s fundamental outlook remains stable. On-chain data shows:

• Increased accumulation by so-called “whales” (large investors)
• Dominance in the DeFi sector (decentralized finance applications) with over USD 190 billion in Total Value Locked (TVL)
• A historically favourable MVRV Z-Score – an indicator used to assess cryptocurrency valuations

These metrics suggest a possible bottoming pattern. However, there is currently a lack of macroeconomic or market-internal triggers to spark a new upward movement.

Ist Interwetten legal in Deutschland? – Alle Infos zur Lizenz und Sicherheit

With the structural pressure removed, Ethereum is now more receptive to positive catalysts. Potential triggers could include:

• A dovish policy shift by the U.S. Federal Reserve
• Approval of an Ethereum spot ETF or increased capital inflows into existing products
• Growth and adoption of Layer 2 solutions (scaling networks built on top of Ethereum)

Without such catalysts, price action is likely to remain subdued. Market participants are currently in a wait-and-see mode.

Ist Interwetten legal in Deutschland? – Alle Infos zur Lizenz und Sicherheit

The unwinding of short positions on CME futures is a key development. It removes a technical drag, but does not automatically translate into new buying pressure. Ethereum now stands on a more neutral footing – this presents an opportunity, but not a guarantee of rising prices.

If you are invested in ETH or considering entering the market, keep a close eye on macroeconomic trends and ETF inflows. Only when these areas show movement could Ethereum regain momentum. Until then, patience is required.